【原版阅读】How HR teams can successfully use headcount planning
编者注：这是Google劳动力规划团队项目经理的思考，与大家分享。他将大部分时间用于帮助将Google的业务战略与人员战略联系起来。分享他在成功规划未来招聘方面所学到的知识 - 无论您的组织规模或增长率如何。
作者：Cliff Emmanuel Program Manager, Workforce Planning
One of the biggest staffing-related challenges I’ve seen at rapidly-growing organizations has been accurately predicting hiring demand. Hiring managers at these organizations want the flexibility to respond to changing market conditions, such as new technology. They also want the freedom to make opportunistic hires — for example, when a competitor has layoffs. At the same time, HR teams require lead time to allocate resources effectively, build out the candidate pipeline, and cultivate long-term relationships with candidates.
As a result of this push and pull between hiring managers and HR, staffing can be stretched beyond capacity as they react to unpredictable shifts in hiring needs. But attempting to resolve this problem with overly-rigid headcount planning can leave the staffing team — and the rest of the organization — unable to properly react when the job market conditions change.
Pursuing flexibility and predictability in hiring doesn’t need to be an either-or decision. Armed with the right tools and questions, a HR team can help their organization achieve balance by engaging company leadership and hiring managers in a thoughtful conversation around headcount demand planning.
As a Program Manager on Google’s Workforce Planning team, I spend most of my time helping connect Google’s business strategy to its people strategy. I’d like to share with you what I’ve learned about successfully planning for future hires — no matter the size or rate of growth of your organization.
What is headcount planning, and where does it fit within strategic workforce planning?
Headcount demand planning is a forecast of future hiring needs at an organization. With this type of planning, a team’s projected hiring demand is proactively discussed with their staffing team well in advance of the actual need to hire. Because these needs are often tightly integrated with the goals and strategy of the organization, each hire that is forecasted has a defined purpose, and the candidate who ultimately fills the vacancy should gain an immediate understanding of how they will help drive the business forward.
As an example: At Google, we frequently plan launches of new products, or updates to our existing product suite. We set launch dates for these products months, or sometimes years, in advance. By determining what kind of product will be launched, and when the launch will take place, our staffing teams can understand:
What types of hires and skill sets will be needed to support the new product — for example, engineers, designers, or project managers.
How many of each role should be hired, by sourcing internally or externally.
When each new hire should start in order to adequately support their portion of the product creation, launch, and promotion.
With this forward-thinking approach to hiring demand, our HR team is able to plan very large hiring periods in advance. And, because the team uses our organization’s goals to drive their planning, each future hire’s purpose is clear from the moment the job ad is created, and HR can speak with confidence about the duties and responsibilities of that role.
It’s important to note that headcount demand planning is just one part of a broader strategic workforce planning process. Before determining future hiring needs, your organization should first clearly establish business and product objectives, identify gaps in skills and capabilities among its current workforce, and think strategically about filling these gaps through internal mobility and upskilling. Only then should teams engage in defining their demand for external talent.
How does headcount planning benefit organizations?
With greater insight into the goals for the organization, HR can more clearly identify which candidates have the right skills to impact these team- or company-wide goals. This proactive approach also provides HR with time to ask the hiring manager questions that may help source stronger candidates, such as, “what will this hire be working on?” or “what specific skills are needed for this role?”
Headcount demand planning also allows recruiters to spend more time identifying these strong candidates. With ample lead time on upcoming roles, recruiters can start building closer relationships with strong candidates — something that is typically not possible otherwise. This allows for more opportunistic hiring at a later date: If a recruiter begins to build a relationship with the ideal candidate for a forecasted role prior to the job ad being posted, the recruiter can take immediate action, speeding up the hiring process.
Finally, hiring managers who take part in demand planning also enjoy the flexibility to respond to changes in the job market. If demand is rising for a specific role that has already been forecasted, and quality candidates are becoming scarce, the hiring manager may have a conversation with staffing about taking action to prioritize this opening in the recruiter’s queue.
How HR professionals can successfully plan for future hires
At large and growing companies like Google, we’re constantly hiring to meet new demand and support our business strategy, but we are also in “growth mode”: We’re continually expanding into new areas and need to regularly grow our workforce to meet these needs.
Smaller organizations, or those not actively growing, will still find headcount demand planning useful, however. Even if you are a recruiter for a small business making just a few hires a year, having conversations about future demand will give you a much better idea of the staffing needs that you will be asked to support.
Understand the business strategy
To successfully plan for future hiring demand, you need a strong understanding of your organization’s business strategy. In my experience, I’ve found that this is a crucial stage in the planning process, as it allows you to understand both when and how future hires will support the growth and goals of your organization.
To learn more about your company’s business strategy, start by asking these questions:
What are our major investments for the next 1-2 years? These may be financial investments, including new products that the company is developing or major updates to current products. Or they may be personnel investments, such as teams in need of expansion or additional training programs.
Are we expanding our footprint? This includes the opening of new offices and the expansion of existing ones, both of which require additional staff to be hired.
Where is the organization growing the most or at the fastest rate? Such as specific teams or skill areas, like development, engineering, or marketing.
How is the industry changing? For example, are advances in technology increasing the importance of new skill sets such as machine learning or 3D printing?
This information can be acquired by speaking with company leadership, or it can often be found in earnings reports, press releases, blog posts, or internal news sources. By gathering the answers to these questions, you will start to grasp areas of future demand, and the types of resources required to meet it.
Speak with hiring managers about their needs
After gathering company-specific information, I recommend speaking directly to hiring managers about the needs of their particular team. This is another opportunity to get useful information about future vacancies within the organization, and often allows staffing teams to better prepare for brand-new roles or, occasionally, changes in the company’s direction.
Start by asking hiring managers these questions:
How will this team support the business strategy? A development team may currently support one product, but soon begin work on a new one. Understanding each team’s role in meeting future goals allows recruiters to better grasp which roles or skills may be currently missing.
What types of roles will be needed? Do hiring managers anticipate any brand-new roles, or will they just be adding roles similar to those already present on their team?
How soon will these vacancies take shape? To avoid overhiring, staffing teams must fill vacancies at the right time — not before a new employee is truly needed.
Integrate forecasting data to your HR system
Most organizations utilize at least one system that tracks the number of current and future employees at their organization. These may be a human resources information system (HRIS), an applicant tracking system (ATS), a spreadsheet, or a combination of tools.
Once the staffing team has acquired details on forecasted hires, this data should be added to their chosen system. When documenting this information, be sure to include all of the details from your conversations with leadership and hiring managers, including:
The roles that are needed: Including job titles, teams, ballpark salary, and responsibilities.
How these employees will support the organization’s goals: Are they being hired for a specific product launch? Or due to forecasted growth within a specific team?
When these hires should be made: This should be as close to a set date as possible, so that staffing teams may use their knowledge of your organization’s time to hire to inform the time that the job ad is posted, that interviews take place, and so on.
To avoid any dysfunction in planning for future hires, all headcount demand data should be stored in the same place. This provides a single “north star” headcount for all roles, whether they are planned to be filled immediately or forecasted for the future.
Dealing with uncertainty
I’ve often heard business leaders say that their industry is changing too fast to engage in rigorous headcount planning. They argue that they need the flexibility to change plans and redirect headcount to take advantage of changing market conditions or make opportunistic hires.
These are real concerns in fast-moving industries or early-stage companies. Yet even in these situations, HR teams can avoid being caught off guard when conditions change. By working with business leaders to understand the sources of uncertainty, HR leaders can incorporate scenario planning into their existing headcount demand planning, and be ready to hit the ground running when the unexpected happens.
Maintain excess staffing capacity proportional to the level of uncertainty
Every time leadership creates a new job opening, staffing requires time to write a job description, prepare interview guides, and build out the candidate pipeline. Unexpectedly closing or changing the requirements of open roles taxes the productivity of the staffing team.
As a result, businesses expecting conditions to change rapidly should reserve excess staffing capacity proportional to the level of uncertainty. The organization could set aside a portion of recruiter time to respond rapidly to ad-hoc requests, or set aside excess budget to engage an external agency when hiring demand unexpectedly surges.
Set clear rules for opportunistic hiring
Occasionally, recruiters may come across a stellar candidate with no corresponding job opening. In other cases, you may have two exceptional finalists for a single job opening. Rather than make a seemingly impossible choice, a hiring manager may like to extend an offer to both qualified candidates, even if there is no established budget for their hire.
In these scenarios, establishing clear guidelines on when the company should make opportunistic hires not captured in the demand plan can help maintain fairness in the hiring process, limit overhiring, and prevent the loss of critical talent.
Headcount planning is a useful process for all businesses
While headcount planning may seem worthwhile only to very large or growing businesses, I’ve learned that it can be an extremely useful process for HR teams of any size at any organization. By investing the time and energy into learning about your company’s future needs, you’re not only preparing yourself for these upcoming hires: You’re also showing your hiring managers that you’re ready and willing to meet their needs, no matter when they arise.
This proactive approach often results in a much closer relationship between staffing and other business teams. This, in turn, strengthens the hiring process even more by preventing confusion or conflict, and allows all teams to work together in harmony toward their common goals.
以下是AI翻译方便学习：
我在快速发展的组织中看到的与人员相关的最大挑战之一就是准确预测招聘需求。这些组织的招聘经理希望灵活应对不断变化的市场条件，例如新技术。他们还希望有机会招聘的自由 - 例如，当竞争对手裁员时。与此同时，人力资源团队需要有时间来有效地分配资源，建立候选管道，并与候选人建立长期关系。
由于招聘经理和人力资源部门之间的这种推动和拉动，人员配备可能会超出能力范围，因为他们会对招聘需求的不可预测的变化做出反应。但是，尝试通过过于严格的人员计划来解决这个问题可能会使人员配备团队 - 以及组织的其他人员 - 在就业市场状况发生变化时无法做出正确的反应。
在招聘中追求灵活性和可预测性不一定是一个或两个决定。有了正确的工具和问题，人力资源团队可以通过让公司领导和招聘经理参与有关员工需求计划的深思熟虑的对话，帮助他们的组织实现平衡。
作为Google劳动力规划团队的项目经理，我将大部分时间用于帮助将Google的业务战略与人员战略联系起来。我想与您分享我在成功规划未来招聘方面所学到的知识 - 无论您的组织规模或增长率如何。
什么是人员规划，它在战略人力规划中的适用范围？
人员需求计划是对组织未来招聘需求的预测。通过这种类型的计划，团队预计的招聘需求将在他们实际需要聘用之前与其员工团队进行主动讨论。由于这些需求通常与组织的目标和战略紧密结合，因此预测的每个雇员都有明确的目标，最终填补空缺的候选人应立即了解他们将如何帮助推动业务发展。
例如：在Google，我们经常计划推出新产品或更新我们现有的产品套件。我们提前几个月或有时几年设置这些产品的发布日期。通过确定将推出何种产品以及何时启动，我们的员工团队可以理解：
支持新产品需要哪些类型的员工和技能 - 例如，工程师，设计师或项目经理。
通过内部或外部采购，应聘用多少角色。
当每个新员工开始时，为了充分支持他们在产品创建，发布和推广方面的部分。
通过这种前瞻性的招聘需求方法，我们的人力资源团队能够提前规划非常大的招聘期。而且，由于团队使用我们组织的目标来推动他们的计划，因此从创建工作广告的那一刻起，每个未来雇员的目的都是明确的，人力资源部门可以充满信心地谈论该角色的职责和责任。
值得注意的是，员工需求计划只是更广泛的战略性劳动力规划流程的一部分。在确定未来的招聘需求之前，您的组织应首先明确制定业务和产品目标，确定当前员工的技能和能力差距，并通过内部流动性和技能提升来战略性地思考如何弥补这些差距。只有这样，团队才能确定他们对外部人才的需求。
人员规划如何使组织受益？
通过更深入地了解组织的目标，人力资源部门可以更清楚地确定哪些候选人具有影响这些团队或公司范围目标的正确技能。这种积极主动的方法还可以让人力资源部门有时间向招聘经理询问可能有助于找到更有实力的候选人的问题，例如“这个雇员会做什么？”或“这个角色需要什么具体技能？”
员工需求计划还允许招聘人员花更多时间来识别这些优秀的候选人。在即将到来的角色上有足够的准备时间，招聘人员可以开始与强大的候选人建立更紧密的关系 - 这通常是不可能的。这允许在以后更多的机会主义招聘：如果招聘人员在招聘广告之前开始与理想候选人建立与预测角色的关系，招聘人员可以立即采取行动，加快招聘流程。
最后，参与需求计划的招聘经理也可以灵活地应对就业市场的变化。如果针对已经预测的特定角色的需求上升，并且优质候选人变得稀缺，则招聘经理可能与人员进行对话，以便采取行动以优先考虑招聘人员队列中的这一开放。
人力资源专业人士如何成功规划未来的招聘
在像谷歌这样的大型和成长型公司，我们不断招聘新的需求并支持我们的业务战略，但我们也处于“增长模式”：我们不断扩展到新的领域，需要定期发展我们的员工以满足这些需求。
然而，规模较小的组织或那些没有积极发展的组织仍然会发现员工需求计划很有用。即使您是一家小型企业的招聘人员，每年只招聘几名员工，但有关未来需求的对话将使您更好地了解您将被要求支持的人员需求。
了解业务战略
要成功规划未来的招聘需求，您需要对组织的业务战略有深刻的理解。根据我的经验，我发现这是规划过程中的一个关键阶段，因为它可以让您了解未来雇员何时以及如何支持组织的发展和目标。
要了解有关贵公司业务战略的更多信息，请首先提出以下问题：
我们未来1 - 2年的主要投资是什么？这些可能是金融投资，包括公司正在开发的新产品或对当前产品的重大更新。或者他们可能是人员投资，例如需要扩展的团队或额外的培训计划。
我们正在扩大我们的足迹？这包括开设新办事处和扩大现有办公室，这两个办公室都需要雇用更多的工作人员。
组织在哪里增长最快或最快？例如特定团队或技能领域，如开发，工程或营销。
行业如何变化？例如，技术的进步是否会增加机器学习或3D打印等新技能的重要性？
这些信息可以通过与公司领导层交谈获得，也可以通常在收入报告，新闻稿，博客文章或内部新闻来源中找到。通过收集这些问题的答案，您将开始掌握未来需求的领域以及满足这些需求所需的资源类型。
与招聘经理谈谈他们的需求
收集公司特定信息后，我建议直接向招聘经理讲述他们特定团队的需求。这是获得有关组织内未来职位空缺的有用信息的另一个机会，并且通常允许员工团队更好地为全新角色做准备，或者偶尔改变公司的方向。
首先向招聘经理询问以下问题：
该团队将如何支持业务战略？开发团队目前可能会支持一种产品，但很快就会开始研发新产品。了解每个团队在实现未来目标中的作用，使招聘人员能够更好地掌握当前可能缺少的角色或技能。
需要什么类型的角色？招聘经理是否会预测任何全新的角色，或者他们只会添加类似于团队中已有的角色？
这些空缺会在多长时间内形成？为避免过度雇用，人员配备团队必须在合适的时间填补空缺 - 而不是在真正需要新员工之前。
将预测数据集成到HR系统
大多数组织至少使用一个系统来跟踪其组织中当前和未来员工的数量。这些可以是人力资源信息系统（HRIS），申请人跟踪系统（ATS），电子表格或工具的组合。
一旦人员配置团队获得了预测员工的详细信息，就应将这些数据添加到他们选择的系统中。记录此信息时，请务必在与领导和招聘经理的对话中包含所有详细信息，包括：
需要的角色：包括职称，团队，球场薪水和责任。
这些员工如何支持组织的目标：他们是否被聘用进行特定的产品发布？或者由于特定团队的预测增长？
当这些雇员应该做出时：这应该尽可能接近设定的日期，以便人员配置团队可以利用他们对您组织的时间的了解来雇用工作广告的时间，进行面试，以及等等。
为了避免计划未来雇员的任何功能失调，所有人数需求数据应存储在同一个地方。这为所有角色提供了单一的“北极星”人数，无论是计划立即填补还是预测未来。
处理不确定性
我经常听到商业领袖说他们的行业变化太快，无法进行严格的人员规划。他们认为，他们需要灵活地改变计划并重新调整员工人数，以利用不断变化的市场条件或进行机会招聘。
这些是快速发展的行业或早期公司的真正关注点。即使在这些情况下，人力资源团队也可以避免在情况发生变化时措手不及。通过与业务负责人合作了解不确定性的来源，人力资源领导者可以将情景规划纳入其现有的员工需求计划中，并准备好在意外发生时立即投入运行。
保持与不确定性水平成比例的超额人员配备能力
每当领导层创建新的职位空缺时，人员配备需要时间来编写职位描述，准备面试指南，并构建候选人管道。意外关闭或改变开放角色的要求会降低人员配备团队的生产力。
因此，预计条件迅速变化的企业应该保留与不确定性水平成比例的超额人员配备能力。该组织可以留出一部分招聘人员的时间来快速响应临时请求，或者在招聘需求意外激增时留出超额预算来聘请外部机构。
为机会招聘制定明确的规则
有时，招聘人员可能会遇到一位没有相应职位空缺的优秀候选人。在其他情况下，您可能有两个特殊的决赛入围者。招聘经理可能不愿意做出看似不可能的选择，而是愿意向两位合格的候选人提供报价，即使他们没有预定的雇佣预算。
在这些情景中，建立明确的指导方针，说明公司何时应该在需求计划中没有记录机会主义招聘，这有助于维持招聘流程的公平性，限制过度雇佣，并防止关键人才的流失。
人员计划是所有企业的有用流程
虽然员工人数计划似乎只对非常大或不断增长的企业有所帮助，但我了解到，对于任何组织的任何规模的人力资源团队来说，这都是一个非常有用的流程。通过投资的时间和精力投入到学习有关公司未来的需求，你不仅准备自己为即将开幕的员工：你还显示，无论何时，他们的招聘经理，你已经准备好并愿意满足他们的需求，出现。
这种积极主动的方法通常会导致员工与其他业务团队之间的关系更紧密。反过来，这可以通过防止混淆或冲突来加强招聘过程，并允许所有团队协调一致地实现共同目标。
Cliff Emmanuel
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